FactSet Research Systems Inc. Dividend History (FDS)

The S&P 500 has typically generated above-average returns during the 12-month period following U.S. presidential elections, regardless of the results. History suggests the S&P 500 could climb another 14% through November 2025, but elevated valuations could lead to a correction or bear market if earnings estimates are not met.

The S&P 500 has returned at least 10% during the first 100 trading days of the year on seven occasions in the last three decades, and each time the index achieved a full-year return of at least 20%. This indicator suggests the S&P 500 could climb higher in the remaining months of 2024, but the index trades at a historically expensive valuation.

The article discusses a stock market indicator that has been 82% accurate since 1984, suggesting a potential rally in the S&P 500 following the first interest rate cut in a cycle. However, the article also cautions that past performance does not guarantee future results and that the market's performance ultimately depends on macroeconomic fundamentals, corporate financial results, and valuations.