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• ETF Strategies for Second Half of 2024

  How the presidential election, at least one Fed rate cut, the holiday season and the AI rally will influence ETF performance in second half of the year.

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• Huge Post Debate Uncertainty For Investors, New Data On Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge And Personal Spending

  To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. PCE Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX). Note the following: The chart shows that the stock market is attempting to break to a new high. RSI on the chart shows that there is a technical set up for the stock market to go higher. The chart shows that the stock market is significantly above the support zone. This indicates that buying here does not have a favorable risk reward ratio. The chart shows low volume. This indicates a lack of conviction. We previously shared with you that economists have become good at predicting the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge PCE. PCE data came as expected. Here are the details: Headline PCE came at 0.0% vs. 0.0% consensus. Core PCE came at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus. The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending. Personal spending dropped. This is inline with the other data of the consumer pulling back that we have been sharing with you.  Here are the details: Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus. Personal income came at 0.5% vs. 0.4% consensus. First and foremost, The Arora Report is politically agnostic. The Arora Report strives to be objective and rigorously analytical to help investors. To make money in the markets, it is important for investors to separate their political views from investing.  Here are the key points: The presidential debate has thrown huge uncertainty in the American economy and U.S.’s international standing. Prudent investors should wait for the air to clear post debate. There will be winning and losing investments from the election. Depending upon what happens over the coming days, changes may be made in the portfolios. In The Arora Report analysis, if nothing changes, the Magnificent Seven stocks,other mega cap stocks, and fossil fuel energy stocks are the winners post debate; ...Full story available on Benzinga.com

  Benzinga

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• Last Inflation Report Pushed Markets To Record Highs In June: Could It Happen Again Friday? 5 ETFs To Watch

  The inflation report that’s closely watched by the Federal Reserve — the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index — was published on May 31 for April data and sparked a fresh market rally in June, pushing major indexes to their all-time highs. As traders brace for Friday’s PCE price index report for May, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, many are wondering whether new favorable inflation data could bring the bulls back to Wall Street after some mixed performance in recent sessions. May’s PCE Report: What Do Economists Expect? The PCE price index is expected to decrease from 2.7% year-on-year in April to 2.6% in May, according to economist consensus data gathered by Econoday. On a monthly basis, the index is forecasted to rise at a 0.1% rate, down from the previous 0.3%. The core PCE price index is projected to drop from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year in May, potentially reaching its lowest level since March 2021. Monthly, it is expected to slow from 0.2% to 0.1%. If PCE inflation falls as expected or even more, it could bolster investor expectations of rate cuts, potentially ...Full story available on Benzinga.com

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• Stocks Show Modest Gains Ahead Of Fed's Inflation Report; Chipmakers Struggle, While Gold And Bitcoin Rebound: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

  Wall Street experienced a subdued trading day on Thursday, as traders likely chose to remain on the sidelines in anticipation of Friday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. In regulatory news, U.S. banks successfully passed the Federal Reserve’s 2024 stress tests. The results demonstrated that all analyzed institutions could maintain minimum capital requirements even in the face of a severe economic shock. Notably, regional banks, as tracked by the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:KRE), performed relatively better overall compared to their larger counterparts. As of midday trading in New York, major indices showed marginal gains, with small caps outperforming large-cap indices. The semiconductor sector continued to face headwinds, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SOXX) down 0.7%, eyeing its fifth negative session in the last six. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) declined almost 2%. Treasury yields moved lower, reflecting increased demand for bonds ahead of the key inflation report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell by 4 ...Full story available on Benzinga.com

  Benzinga

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• Gold Set to Break $3,000? ETFs to Consider

  Look into gold ETFs as rising geopolitical tensions, increasing probability of an interest rate cut and central banks increasing their purchase of the precious metal drive the rally behind gold prices and demand.

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